Baseball Betting Lines Explained

The point spread is such a ubiquitous part of sports gambling that it has become fodder for pundits and fans who would never place a wager. 'Notre Dame is giving up 6 points to USC,' someone might say. 'I didn't know that USC was looking that good this year.'

1. Baseball Betting Lines Explained Chart
2. Baseball Betting Lines Explained Chart

Dec 26, 2019 If you were betting on the Patriots and their 3/1 odds, you would win $3 for every $1 you spend. So if you bet $50 on the Pats and they ended up winning the Super Bowl, you'd win $150 (plus your. What is a Betting Line? A betting line is a form of betting whereby the bookmaker handicaps a team/player to effectively make the contest 50/50. This handicap is set by creating a margin (line) between the two teams, in a contest where there are only two outcomes possible. An Example of How Betting Lines Work. If You're Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign in front, and indicate the money you need to risk to win $100. So if you're betting on the Yankees at -130, you need to risk $130 and will win $100 if New York wins the game (plus your original $130 back). Run Line Betting in baseball almost mimics NFL Spread Betting exactly, which is the most popular type of football betting. The line for baseball run lines is 1.5. With a 1.5 run line you will be able to place a wager on the favored team to win by 2 runs or more, or the underdog team to lose by 1 run or to win the game. Baseball betting – MLB Run Lines Explained. 29 May 2018; in: Sports Betting Blog; The MLB season has 162 games and is by far, the longest season of any major league sport. Baseball is a game of strategy that is won by precise detail and planning, it's also a very long game.

Instead of judging whether they think the numbers are correct or misguided, people are more likely to simply accept what Vegas has to say. The spread becomes just another prediction.

Baseball wagering is unique in that there is no traditional point spread set for a ballgame. Instead, sportsbooks focus on run totals, the run line, and, most commonly, the money line (ML).

When you wager on the ML, you are picking who you think will win the contest outright. It doesn't matter how many runs a team scores or how many runs they win by, they just need to score more than their opponent.

This, of course, comes with a catch. A sportsbook is not going to give the same odds to win between a division-leading team with their best starter on the mound and a team at the bottom of the division throwing a bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher.

How to Read MLB Baseball Money Lines – Basic Explanation & Definition

What oddsmakers do in lieu of the point spread is to weigh the moneyline with heavier odds on the favorite. This is an example of what the numbers on a typical ballgame might look like:

• Texas Rangers (-150)
• Oakland A's (+130)

The Rangers are projected to prevail. The favorite in the match-up will always be the negative (-) number, while the underdog is always positive (+), just like the numbers work with point spreads.

The easiest way to factor the risk vs reward is in terms of $100. In the example above, the (-150) means that you'd need to risk $150 to win $100 on the Texas Rangers. This means if the Rangers prevail, you will be paid $100 (plus your initial $150 investment), however, if the Rangers lose, you lose $150. You must increase the amount you risk on Texas because they are handicapped as the team most likely to take the game.

As for the A's, at (+130), that number tells you that you can risk $100 to win $130 on them. A winning wager on Oakland gives you $130 (plus you'll get back the $100 you bet), while a losing bet on the A's would only cost you $100.

Learn About Baseball Line Prices: Dime Line vs 20 Cent Line

In the example above, and at most sportsbooks, you'll have what is called a 20 cent line. All that this means is that the absolute value of the favorite price is 20 cents more than the underdog price (150 – 130 = 20). With reduced juice or dime line odds, you'll get a 10 cent difference. On the very same game, a dime line book like 5Dimes would set the prices at -140 and +130 (140 – 130 = 10). This definitely gives you an edge simply because it takes away some of the built-in vig the book uses to calculate their odds. More on this to come.

Calculating Probability

When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability. In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line.

Convert Money Lines to Percentage

There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative.

Positive

Example: Money Line = +130

Negative

Example: Money Line = -150

Understanding Vig/Bookmaker Margin: Calculating the No-Vig Line

The astute bettor will notice right away that the probability on each side of an MLB game does not add up to 100%. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge.

Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had 43.5% + 60% = 103.5%; 103.5%. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds (some books do adjust differently on favorites versus underdogs, but we do not need to go into that in detail at this point). We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team.

In this matchup, the line tells you that in a fair (no vig) market the underdog has a 42% chance of winning and the favorite has a 58% of winning. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds.

How to Calculate MLB Baseball Moneylines for Betting Risk & Reward

If you aren't betting exactly $100 per game, it's easy to calculate your risk/reward by converting MLs to decimals and multiplying those numbers by your wager amount. A couple of examples:

• If the ML is (-134) and you want to wager enough to collect $35 on that team, you must convert the ML to -1.34 and multiply by $35, which equals $46.90; the amount that is needed to risk on a favorite of -(134) to win $35.
• If you're looking to bet an underdog of (+172) and have $47 available for a wager, then calculate 1.72 x $47 = $80.25, which is the amount you could collect on a (+172) underdog with a $47 bet.

Using Major League Baseball Odds to Your Advantage

The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit. For example, if you wager on 100 games with an average line of (-130), you would need to score on 58% (58 of 100) of your bets just to turn a profit, betting $100 per game. You should be paid out $5,800, but lose $5,460 on these bets, giving you a total profit of $340.

Now, looking at a situation where you bet on mostly small underdogs, say an average line of (+115) over 100 bets, you would only need accuracy on about 47% of your picks (47 of 100) to show a profit. You should receive $5,405 in this case while losing $5,300, a profit of $105. Say you can up your winning percentage to 50% at an average money line of (+115). If you are able to do that, you should instead collect $5,750, while losing $5,000, a profit of $750.

Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions. But a club that recently won a low-scoring outing as a ‘dog is dangerous and almost never a bad wager. Once a team has proven it can small-ball grind its way to upsets of more talented clubs, they carry more value than a squad that got lucky with 5 homers against the Yankees.

Underdog Betting Equals Value In MLB Wagers

As you can see, winning bets on underdogs can add up quickly. Sportsbooks are, of course, well aware of this, but because most people lean toward favorites and not underdogs, they don't really care. Like a grocery store putting its sweet snacks at toddler-eye level, the books know that some people are wise to their strategy – but enough of a % of shoppers won't be. Don't be taken advantage of. Take advantage!

There are few sure-fire handicapping systems that lead to sustained profit in any sport. Roulette wheel. NFL wagering, for instance, can be a supreme challenge due to its volatility and the sheer amount of action leveling out the lines. The NBA can be a bear due to 'garbage time' and other factors that affect the Over/Under.

Not to say that a cash player can't make money over time wagering on those sports, but when you find a system that is proven to work in a sport where lines can't be adjusted too much (due to being set in the morning and paid off by night), then it's never a bad idea to learn those tactics – even if you don't always adhere to them.

The numbers above show that if managing to choose your picks on the diamond wisely and take as many high-value underdogs as you can, you will be well on your way to a profitable summer.

MLB Run Line Betting is fairly popular with MLB bettors, but is not nearly as popular as betting the MLB money line or the over/under line. Many beginner bettors may not be familiar with MLB Run Line betting or may not fully understand how it works, so below we will explain how exactly the MLB Run Line Betting option works.

First it is important to understand that with MLB Run Line Betting you will be choosing sides or teams like you do with money line betting. Run Line Betting in baseball almost mimics NFL Spread Betting exactly, which is the most popular type of football betting.

The line for baseball run lines is 1.5. With a 1.5 run line you will be able to place a wager on the favored team to win by 2 runs or more, or the underdog team to lose by 1 run or to win the game.

The line would be set on the favorites at -1.5, which essentially means the team must win by 2 or more runs, or 'cover' the 1.5 run line. Within the same game the underdogs would be listed at +1.5, which means that the underdog team must either lose the game by 1 run or less, or win the game outright.

Although the MLB Run Line is always set at 1.5, some betting sites allow you to bet alternative lines of 2.5 or sometimes even 3.5 runs with varied odds of course.

MLB Run Line Example:

• Texas Rangers (-150)
• Oakland A's (+130)

The Rangers are projected to prevail. The favorite in the match-up will always be the negative (-) number, while the underdog is always positive (+), just like the numbers work with point spreads.

The easiest way to factor the risk vs reward is in terms of $100. In the example above, the (-150) means that you'd need to risk $150 to win $100 on the Texas Rangers. This means if the Rangers prevail, you will be paid $100 (plus your initial $150 investment), however, if the Rangers lose, you lose $150. You must increase the amount you risk on Texas because they are handicapped as the team most likely to take the game.

As for the A's, at (+130), that number tells you that you can risk $100 to win $130 on them. A winning wager on Oakland gives you $130 (plus you'll get back the $100 you bet), while a losing bet on the A's would only cost you $100.

Learn About Baseball Line Prices: Dime Line vs 20 Cent Line

In the example above, and at most sportsbooks, you'll have what is called a 20 cent line. All that this means is that the absolute value of the favorite price is 20 cents more than the underdog price (150 – 130 = 20). With reduced juice or dime line odds, you'll get a 10 cent difference. On the very same game, a dime line book like 5Dimes would set the prices at -140 and +130 (140 – 130 = 10). This definitely gives you an edge simply because it takes away some of the built-in vig the book uses to calculate their odds. More on this to come.

Calculating Probability

When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability. In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line.

Convert Money Lines to Percentage

There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative.

Positive

Example: Money Line = +130

Negative

Example: Money Line = -150

Understanding Vig/Bookmaker Margin: Calculating the No-Vig Line

The astute bettor will notice right away that the probability on each side of an MLB game does not add up to 100%. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge.

Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had 43.5% + 60% = 103.5%; 103.5%. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds (some books do adjust differently on favorites versus underdogs, but we do not need to go into that in detail at this point). We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team.

In this matchup, the line tells you that in a fair (no vig) market the underdog has a 42% chance of winning and the favorite has a 58% of winning. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds.

How to Calculate MLB Baseball Moneylines for Betting Risk & Reward

If you aren't betting exactly $100 per game, it's easy to calculate your risk/reward by converting MLs to decimals and multiplying those numbers by your wager amount. A couple of examples:

• If the ML is (-134) and you want to wager enough to collect $35 on that team, you must convert the ML to -1.34 and multiply by $35, which equals $46.90; the amount that is needed to risk on a favorite of -(134) to win $35.
• If you're looking to bet an underdog of (+172) and have $47 available for a wager, then calculate 1.72 x $47 = $80.25, which is the amount you could collect on a (+172) underdog with a $47 bet.

Using Major League Baseball Odds to Your Advantage

The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit. For example, if you wager on 100 games with an average line of (-130), you would need to score on 58% (58 of 100) of your bets just to turn a profit, betting $100 per game. You should be paid out $5,800, but lose $5,460 on these bets, giving you a total profit of $340.

Now, looking at a situation where you bet on mostly small underdogs, say an average line of (+115) over 100 bets, you would only need accuracy on about 47% of your picks (47 of 100) to show a profit. You should receive $5,405 in this case while losing $5,300, a profit of $105. Say you can up your winning percentage to 50% at an average money line of (+115). If you are able to do that, you should instead collect $5,750, while losing $5,000, a profit of $750.

Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions. But a club that recently won a low-scoring outing as a ‘dog is dangerous and almost never a bad wager. Once a team has proven it can small-ball grind its way to upsets of more talented clubs, they carry more value than a squad that got lucky with 5 homers against the Yankees.

Underdog Betting Equals Value In MLB Wagers

As you can see, winning bets on underdogs can add up quickly. Sportsbooks are, of course, well aware of this, but because most people lean toward favorites and not underdogs, they don't really care. Like a grocery store putting its sweet snacks at toddler-eye level, the books know that some people are wise to their strategy – but enough of a % of shoppers won't be. Don't be taken advantage of. Take advantage!

There are few sure-fire handicapping systems that lead to sustained profit in any sport. Roulette wheel. NFL wagering, for instance, can be a supreme challenge due to its volatility and the sheer amount of action leveling out the lines. The NBA can be a bear due to 'garbage time' and other factors that affect the Over/Under.

Not to say that a cash player can't make money over time wagering on those sports, but when you find a system that is proven to work in a sport where lines can't be adjusted too much (due to being set in the morning and paid off by night), then it's never a bad idea to learn those tactics – even if you don't always adhere to them.

The numbers above show that if managing to choose your picks on the diamond wisely and take as many high-value underdogs as you can, you will be well on your way to a profitable summer.

MLB Run Line Betting is fairly popular with MLB bettors, but is not nearly as popular as betting the MLB money line or the over/under line. Many beginner bettors may not be familiar with MLB Run Line betting or may not fully understand how it works, so below we will explain how exactly the MLB Run Line Betting option works.

First it is important to understand that with MLB Run Line Betting you will be choosing sides or teams like you do with money line betting. Run Line Betting in baseball almost mimics NFL Spread Betting exactly, which is the most popular type of football betting.

The line for baseball run lines is 1.5. With a 1.5 run line you will be able to place a wager on the favored team to win by 2 runs or more, or the underdog team to lose by 1 run or to win the game.

The line would be set on the favorites at -1.5, which essentially means the team must win by 2 or more runs, or 'cover' the 1.5 run line. Within the same game the underdogs would be listed at +1.5, which means that the underdog team must either lose the game by 1 run or less, or win the game outright.

Although the MLB Run Line is always set at 1.5, some betting sites allow you to bet alternative lines of 2.5 or sometimes even 3.5 runs with varied odds of course.

MLB Run Line Example:

Baseball Betting Lines Explained Chart

Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-150)

@ Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+120)

Baseball Betting Lines Explained Chart

In the MLB Run Line example above, you can see that the Twins are the favorites in the game, as the run line is set at -1.5 for them. The negative (-) sign indicates that the Twins are favored, and must cover the 1.5 runs (win by 2 or more) in order for a bet on them on the run line to win. The odds listed for the Twins to win by two runs or more in our example are +120.

You will also see that the White Sox are the underdogs. The +1.5 indicates that the White Sox must either win the game outright or lose by a single run in order for a run line bet placed on them to win. The odds listed for the White Sox on the run line in our example are -150.

MLB Run Line Betting Strategy

A lot of bettors overlook the difficulty of MLB Run Line Betting. Many bettors will get in the mindset that the team they think will win the game will probably do so by at least 2 runs, leading them to bet the run line over the money line because of the higher odds. Just about 30% of MLB games end up being one run games, which is a lot higher than most people would have expected, making it very tough to predict when a team will cover the 1.5 run spread on the run line.

Another thing that many casual bettors don't take into consideration when betting the MLB Run Line is the disadvantage that the home team has. When the home team is favored they will need to win by two or more runs in order for a wager on them on the run line to win. Because the bottom of the ninth inning is not played out when the home team is winning, it leads to a lot of one run ball games finishing in the middle of the ninth inning. The home team gets one less at bat to score the extra runs that could have won you a run line wager.

One of the best strategies when betting the MLB Run Line is to try and stay away from laying the 1.5 runs on the favored team. Taking the 1.5 runs on an underdog team is a more profitable long term strategy, and many of the sharp MLB bettors will be taking the run more often than laying the run. There will be some spots where you can even get money taking the 1.5 runs. In the end it is all about finding value with MLB Run Line betting, and if you can spots to bet it you can be profitable!